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At first, Donald Trump gave the impression to take a strong position concerning Ukraine. Following making threats of "serious ramifications" last August in case Vladimir Putin continued obstructing truce negotiations, he finally enacted major sanctions on Russia's primary oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move substantially affected Putin's capability to fund his military invasion in the region.

Yet, via his latest detailed peace initiative for the conflict, reportedly created by American and Russian diplomats lacking Ukrainian or European input, the former president has apparently gone back to his pro-Putin stance.

Favoring Aggression

The former president's plan would effectively reward the Russian leader for occupying a sovereign nation while putting the country's democratic system in danger. Despite bold proclamations that "The nation's independence will be affirmed", large portions of the proposal actually compromise that essential independence. What represents a Moscow's wish would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his corporate experience, the former president continues to view the Ukrainian conflict as a basic border issue, as if handing Russia a part of Ukrainian soil will please the president. But, Putin's invasion is not only about occupying a damaged area of deindustrialized land in Ukraine's east. Instead, it's about the nation's political system – and Putin's apparent intention to weaken it so it ceases to acts as an enticing model for the Russia's population of the responsible government that Putin's growing authoritarian rule prevents them.

Border Surrenders

While freezing in place the presently divided oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's initiative would require Ukraine to abandon the whole this eastern territory. Aside from favoring the Russian Federation with land that its troops have been unsuccessful to occupy in exceeding a ten years of conflict, this surrender would leave Ukrainian military defenses dangerously weakened.

This region is the location of the nation's highly-touted "fortress belt", the fortified defensive positions that represent a critical barrier to enemy progress. The proposal would have Ukraine leave these defenses, giving Putin a clear route to the capital if he subsequently choose to renew the war.

Armed Forces Restrictions

Then, in a move that would make additional conflict more feasible for the Russian military, Trump would force the nation to diminish the numbers of its troops from their existing approximately 800,000 troops to a cap of 600,000. Notably, Trump's plan places no similar limits on Russia's military.

Seemingly as a accommodation to Putin's campaign to portray Ukraine's legitimate government as extremists, the proposal states: "All radical belief system and actions must be opposed and banned." As if to emphasize this point, it demands that "The nation will hold democratic votes in this period" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, the proposal sets no condition that Putin endanger his regime by allowing elections in his own country.

Protection Guarantees

Certainly, the plan includes Russia pledge not to "enter other states" and to "incorporate in legislation its stance of non-aggression towards the EU and Ukraine". However given that the Russian leadership has violated comparable treaties in the past – including the Budapest accord, in which Russia promised to honor the nation's sovereignty in exchange for giving up its historical atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow promised to a ceasefire and a handback of captured territory in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – how should anyone trust Putin this time?

This explains Ukraine has been so adamant on western protection assurances. Although the proposal threatens a "decisive coordinated defense action" if the Russian Federation renew its invasion, and provides that "Ukraine will receive reliable protection assurances", the details range from unclear to alarming. The plan would not just block Ukraine Nato membership but also prohibit member states from stationing troops on Ukrainian territory, thus preventing the reassurance force, likely headed by European powers, on which Ukraine had been depending to stop Putin from rebuilding his weakened troops, restocking, and reinvading.

World Concern

An additional supplementary accord according to sources would offer the nation with a Nato-style security guarantee, in which any future "significant, deliberate, and continuous armed attack" by Russia on Ukraine "would be considered as an attack jeopardizing the tranquility of the allied countries." This indicates a military response. Yet different from a capable national defense – Ukraine's best protection against future Russian aggression – the success of the side agreement would depend on the commitment of Nato leaders, like the US administration, to react through arms to Russia's attacks, something they have {not